US Munitions Depletion: Pentagon Warns Trump
A major political and military crisis is unfolding in Washington following highly classified leaks from the Pentagon. Detailed minutes of a private White House meeting reveal that General Ryzan Kean, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned President Donald Trump that a large-scale war against Iran is highly risky due to severe depletion of key U.S. munitions. The document highlights that years of continuous air defense operations to protect Israel have drained the U.S. strategic arsenal, exposing the limits of American military preparedness.
Leaked Minutes: The Cost of Defending Israel
The leak, published by the Washington Post and Axios, indicates that General Kean expressed deep concerns during a National Security Council meeting that included Vice President JD Vance, Senator Marco Rubio, and White House Advisor Stephen Miller.
According to the leaked minutes, the primary driver of this munitions crisis is the "continuous defense of Israel" and military aid to Ukraine. The U.S. Navy has fired hundreds of advanced interceptor missiles in the Red Sea and Mediterranean to protect shipping lanes and Israeli territory from ballistic missile attacks.
The depletion is especially severe in the U.S. Navy’s inventory of SM-3 (Standard Missile 3) interceptors. These highly specialized weapons:
- Cost: Approximately $25 million per unit.
- Production Rate: The U.S. manufactures only 1 to 2 SM-3 missiles per month, with plans to reach 20 units per year by 2027.
- Production Time: It takes up to two years to manufacture a single interceptor.
- Inventory Status: Extensive use has depleted almost all available combat stocks, leaving only a quarter of the inventory to protect the U.S. homeland. Other systems, including SM-2, SM-6, Patriot PAC-3, and THAAD batteries, face similar supply squeezes.
This shortage makes a sustained air campaign against Iran highly challenging, a reality that contrasts with the U.S. posture outlined in NATO Depleted: US Shifts F-35s from Europe to the Gulf.
Trump's Reaction: Fake News and "Midnight Hammer"
President Trump reacted angrily on Truth Social, calling the leaks "Fake News" designed to undermine U.S. resolve. He denied that General Kean opposed military action, claiming instead that the General believed any conflict with Iran would lead to a swift victory.
Trump asserted that Iran's nuclear capabilities were already disabled during the U.S. stealth-bomber operation, code-named "Midnight Hammer", which utilized B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to strike key underground facilities. Trump wrote: "I am the one who decides. I prefer to reach a deal over no deal, but if we don't, it will be a very day for that country and its citizens."
The Operational Reality: Hitting Hundreds of Targets
Despite Trump's optimistic rhetoric, the Pentagon's internal estimates paint a more complex picture. An air campaign targeting Iran’s mobile missile launchers would require striking hundreds of targets across a country three times the size of Iraq.
If the objective is expanded to include the overthrow of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—who has reportedly drafted his will and named four potential successors—the target list would grow to thousands of sites. Pentagon planners warn that such an operation:
- Would take weeks or months to execute.
- Would result in 2,000 to 3,000 U.S. casualties in the opening days.
- Faces severe refusal of airspace rights from Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who have notified Washington they will not allow U.S. bases on their territory to be used for strikes against Iran.
This operational friction is compounded by the evacuation of non-essential personnel from the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon.
Iran's Stance: "We Are Iranians"
In response to the escalating threats, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff questioned on Fox News why Tehran is refusing to comply with U.S. demands. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded directly: "They wonder why we do not respond. Because we are Iranians!"
Concurrently, Iranian Army Chief General Hatami declared that a U.S. defeat is inevitable, citing U.S. failures in Vietnam and Afghanistan despite their technological superiority. Hatami noted that Iran is prepared for a "hybrid war" (political, economic, and military) and dismissed the U.S. build-up as a campaign of "strategic exhaustion" designed to wear down the Iranian public.
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