Iran Deploys 20 Submarines, Electrifying America
Breaking news: a US destroyer has been withdrawn to a base likely in Japan. This withdrawal came directly after the Russian-Iranian naval maneuvers and the exercises that preceded them with the IRGC in the same strait. Serious questions are now being raised about the withdrawal of this American destroyer.
Field developments confirm that the strike group of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is now operating with one less destroyer. This raises a critical question: is this a deliberate tactical decision, or are we witnessing a forced redeployment that compels the Americans to reduce the Lincoln's combat group? The USS Lincoln is not operating at full strike capacity. Why, precisely? This is the military question being asked.
US Marines and the Saudi Exercises: An Amphibious Signal
From one angle, the USS Vincent has been conducting joint exercises with Saudi forces. US Marines and American sailors currently deployed in the Middle East participated alongside the Royal Saudi Naval Forces in training maneuvers. These exercises enhanced interoperability and sharpened combat skills—a critical detail when considering a potential amphibious landing and ground engagement.
We are talking about US Marines—the strike force capable of deploying to a region and fighting on the ground. This represents an exceptional development: the United States is sending a direct message to the Iranians that training for a land-based amphibious assault is now underway.
The second angle is equally alarming. The aircraft carrier has completely shifted to F/A-18 operations, placing the entire mission under naval command rather than any other domain. The Navy is now directly leading an operation in preparation for an upcoming Marine landing. The carrier is working toward this objective. The battle is therefore naval first, immediately followed by an amphibious assault via US Marines. This is the clear American operational concept.
The Destroyer Mystery: Tactical Move or Forced Retreat?
Regarding the destroyer withdrawal, some argue it aligns with the evolving tactics focused on deploying Marines. While this may be a valid justification, it comes with a 30% reduction in the Lincoln's naval strike power, shifting focus to naval aviation and then to its Marine units.
The situation is extremely dangerous. The withdrawn destroyer had been part of the strike group and had crossed red lines when the carrier approached to within 700 kilometers of the Iranian coast. Subsequently, this destroyer advanced even further to approximately 500 kilometers. Then something happened to this destroyer—this is the question. It was a test run, and then the destroyer was pulled back. To this day, satellite imagery cannot locate this destroyer's hull number.
Iran's Counter-Move: 20 Ghadir-Class Submarines
From the Israeli perspective, the situation presents an entirely different logic. Iran has deployed more than 20 Ghadir-class mini-submarines in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. This move comes as a direct response to the reinforced American military presence, which includes two carrier strike groups—the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald Ford—along with submarine capabilities.
According to Israeli intelligence assessments, these small submarines are based on North Korean Yono-class technology and were specifically designed for the unique conditions of the Arabian Gulf.
Ghadir Technical Specifications
- Dimensions: Approximately 29 meters in length, weighing up to 150 tons
- Armament: Equipped with two 533mm torpedo tubes capable of launching:
- Heavy torpedoes (Valfajr)
- The Hoot supercavitating high-speed torpedo
- Jask anti-ship missiles launched from underwater
- Stealth: Its small size and diesel-electric propulsion system allow it to operate extremely quietly in shallow waters, making sonar detection exceptionally difficult due to background noise and seabed echo
- Additional Capabilities: Naval mine-laying and transport of naval commando forces for special operations
The Asymmetric Warfare Doctrine
According to the Israeli reading, these submarines' threat is not limited to directly destroying aircraft carriers in face-to-face combat. They form a core component of Iran's asymmetric warfare doctrine:
- Shallow Water Ambushes: The Gulf is crowded and shallow. Ghadir submarines can lie on the seabed in silent ambush, waiting for escort ships, destroyers, or supply vessels—targets far more vulnerable than the carrier itself.
- Disrupting Shipping Lines: Deploying these submarines in the Strait of Hormuz directly threatens the passage of all global oil through this chokepoint, creating massive economic pressure. Oil prices have already jumped from 72 per barrel.
- Swarm Tactics: Simultaneously deploying a large number of small submarines can overwhelm the defense systems of the American strike group. According to Israeli documents, this may be the primary justification for concern.
Conclusion
The American response involves a multi-layered anti-submarine warfare (ASW) system. However, the withdrawal of a destroyer, the 30% reduction in strike group capacity, and the deployment of 20 Iranian mini-submarines in waters specifically designed for asymmetric ambushes creates a profoundly dangerous naval equation that could fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Gulf.
Note: This article is part of our Political Economy series, providing deep strategic analysis on global macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts.