When MBS Said No to Trump: Inside the Arms Game
Trump has said it repeatedly and openly: America wants to be the exclusive, sole arms supplier to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia should not purchase any weapon from anyone else. According to Washington, what Riyadh already possesses—the F-15 fleet and the Eurofighter Typhoons—is more than sufficient for its Air Force.
However, when it comes to the F-35, there is currently nothing that grants Saudi Arabia this right, despite Trump's public media posturing about delivering the same technology Israel possesses. The F-35 delivered to Israel has been augmented with proprietary technologies, including beyond-visual-range capabilities added to its specific model. Even if the standard F-35 were delivered to Saudi Arabia, the technological advantage would remain firmly with Israel.
The Israeli Veto: A Permanent Blockade
Israel does not want to give the F-35 to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This door was effectively closed by Trump's own advisors and family after his son Eric entered into partnerships with Israeli artificial intelligence companies—a revelation we exposed in a dedicated video.
While Trump desires to deliver what America promises, Israel preempts with a permanent veto against F-35 delivery to Saudi Arabia. The UAE's Crown Prince previously fought a fierce battle to obtain F-35s on par with Israel's, and Israel refused. The price paid was the Abraham Accords. Today, Saudi Arabia remains outside these accords, and with the permanent Israeli veto in place, the outcome is identical: whether inside or outside the Abraham Accords, neither the UAE, Saudi Arabia, nor any other regional state will receive the F-35.
The Pakistani and Chinese Fighter Block
The second and more critical development is the pressure the US has exerted on Saudi Arabia regarding the purchase of Pakistani and Chinese fighter jets. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had previously expressed interest in the JF-17 Thunder, a 4th-generation-plus fighter jointly developed by Pakistan and China. The US successfully pressured Riyadh into providing guarantees not to purchase these aircraft.
There had been earlier discussions about the possibility of Saudi Arabia writing off Pakistani debt in exchange for fighter jet deliveries. However, Washington shut down this entire pathway. Purchasing from China would lead to sanctions, and the Pakistani route was blocked through direct American pressure on Islamabad.
The Turkish KAAN: The Real Battleground
Today, the most significant pressure point is the Turkish 5th-generation fighter program, the KAAN. The United States is deeply alarmed by the prospect of Saudi participation in Turkey's program.
According to defense intelligence sources, the US fears that contracts signed with other countries—especially Turkey—will directly harm American arms exports to Riyadh. During his last visit, the American President publicly stated that delivering the F-35 to Saudi Arabia was perfectly normal and part of a broad defense agreement. However, behind the scenes, American diplomats demanded clear information from Riyadh about its military and technical contacts with other countries, particularly Turkey.
The core American strategy is to sever the Saudi-Turkish defense relationship. To this day, Riyadh has not provided any guarantees to its American partners regarding its refusal to participate in the KAAN program. The reason is simple and logical from the Saudi perspective:
- You refuse to deliver the F-35 to me
- You block me from buying 5th-gen fighters from China
- You prevent me from acquiring them through Pakistan
- And now you want to stop me from manufacturing them with Turkey?
Why? Because Trump insists on being the exclusive supplier. Any deal with another partner will cascade into subsequent deals, and America's market share will evaporate. Drones like the Turkish Akıncı, 5th-generation fighters—all of these represent losses for America.
The Saudi Strategic Dilemma
Saudi Arabia today faces a critical crossroads:
- Buy the F-35: Trump has accepted this in principle, but execution is nearly impossible due to the Israeli veto. Acceptance does not mean delivery. The Americans want the acceptance itself to obstruct Saudi Arabia's transformation, while simultaneously delivering nothing. The issue would then dissolve through time and the game of projections.
- Buy from China: This route leads to sanctions. Saudi Arabia has already dropped this option.
- Buy through Pakistan: The Americans pressured the Pakistanis directly, halting this pathway as well. And look at what happened to Prime Minister Imran Khan—in prison, losing his eyesight day by day. This is the Pakistani model.
- Co-manufacture with Turkey (KAAN): This is the only remaining viable option. When you manufacture, you are not buying—sanctions apply to purchases, not to domestic production. No one can impose a ban on sovereign manufacturing.
The JF-17 to 5th-Gen Leap: America's Nightmare
The most terrifying scenario for the Americans is a Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish trilateral defense agreement. Pakistan already possesses the JF-17 Thunder, a 4th-generation-plus platform. By integrating Turkish electronic warfare systems, AESA radar technology, and capabilities up to Block 11, the JF-17 would transform into a formidable aircraft approaching 5th-generation specifications.
If all Turkish technologies are embedded into the Pakistani JF-17 platform, the result would be an extraordinary fighter jet that could rival the F-35—and potentially surpass it into 5th-generation-plus and 6th-generation territory. This is what the Americans fear most, and they are maneuvering in every direction to prevent a Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish agreement because this leap would be exceptional by every measure.
The American Counter-Play
Washington is playing a dangerous and multilayered game. To undercut the Turkish KAAN program, the US is attempting to reopen the F-35 discussion with Turkey, luring Ankara back into the F-35 consortium—despite knowing the Israeli veto ensures no delivery. The goal is identical to the Saudi playbook: promise F-35s to both Turkey and Saudi Arabia, keep them waiting indefinitely, and in the meantime, kill the KAAN program by starving it of Saudi funding.
Conclusion
The scenario is clear: the United States is using the F-35 as a weapon of diplomatic manipulation, not as an actual deliverable. By dangling the promise of America's most advanced fighter jet while Israel maintains its permanent veto, Washington ensures regional dependence on US arms exports while systematically blocking every alternative. The only question remaining is whether Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will call this bluff and proceed with the Turkish manufacturing partnership.
Note: This article is part of our Political Economy series, providing deep strategic analysis on global macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts.